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Property Damage & Disaster Restoration Blog: Long Island & New York City

Long Island Hurricane Watch: Tropics Watch: Monitoring Two Atlantic Systems

Posted on Mon, Jul 30, 2012 @ 11:04 AM

long island hurricane,long island,hurricane,hurricane watch,new york,long island hurricane watch,tropical storm,atlantic ocean,tropical depression,tropical wave

Areas to Watch

Welcome to the WeatherChannel.com's daily analysis of the tropics for the 2012 hurricane season.

(MORE: Tropical update article)

The above image is an overview of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins, based on analysis provided by Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro (On Twitter | On Facebook) and Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross (On Twitter |On Facebook).  Named storms, hurricanes, or depressions in either basin will be labeled on the graphic.  Any other features of interest we're keeping an eye on for possible development will be circled.

If there are areas of interest, you'll find zoomed-in details in the next few images.  Otherwise, we'll provide perspective graphics on tropical cyclone climatology for the current month, as well as status updates on the season-to-date.  

 

Click Here to go to the next image of WeatherChannel.com's atlantic ocean hurricane watch analysis.

 

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Hurricane Alerts: Watch vs. Warning...Know the Difference

Posted on Tue, Aug 31, 2010 @ 11:37 AM

hurricane earl

Hurricane Earl, the second major hurricane of 2010, is moving away from the Northern Leeward Islands.  Residents along the U.S. East Coast should follow Earl closely to see what impacts the hurricane will bring Thursday and Friday.  Long Island may be impacted by Earl and current weather conditions call for a 30-40% chance that Suffolk County will face a Tropical Storm come this Friday, September 3rd. 

What is the differnece between Watches and Warnings? 

  • TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are
possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
  • TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.
  • HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
  • HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
  • For more information on hurricanes and emergency preparedness, please click here.

     

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    NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Posted on Tue, Jun 01, 2010 @ 04:32 PM

    hurricane

    An "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center - a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

    Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

    • 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
    • 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
    • 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

    "If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

    The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

    • Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
    • Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures - up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average - are now present in this region.
    • High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

    "The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop."

    "FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

    The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at http://www.ready.gov/ and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml.

    NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

    NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit NOAA on Facebook.

    Article Source: NOAA

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    2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

    Posted on Wed, Apr 28, 2010 @ 09:10 PM
     
    The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean will begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.

    Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions
    An Above-Average Hurricane Season:


    * On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/7 Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "lead to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/8


    Eight Major Hurricanes Expected


    * Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.


    15 Named Storms in Total

    * Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/12

    Hurricane Information
     
    The 2009 hurricane season was a relatively mild one for the United States, with only one hurricane and one tropical storm coming ashore. The position of El Nino near the South American coast and cool Atlantic waters inhibited storm growth. We cannot, however, count on the 2010 hurricane season being so uneventful. If El Nino draws away from the South American coast causing warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean, conditions will be much more favorable to hurricane development.

    For individuals in the paths of potential hurricanes, the keys to minimizing deaths and property damage are preparedness and heeding the instructions local officials. If a hurricane actually threatens your area, keeping current on the latest forecasts for the storm's path and preparing to evacuate is essential. This 2010 Hurricane Season page will follow the 2010 season from preparedness, throughout the season, and in the aftermath, offering up-to-date information and resources to keep you fully informed.

    Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season
     
    As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.

    At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms.http://cbs4.com/local/el.nino.hurricane.2.1338052.html13


    One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009.http://www.baldwincountynow.com/articles/2009/12/13/local_news/doc4b2171607d043750595889.txt14 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes.http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf15 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer.http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Forecast_Schedule.html16 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed.http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/2010-hurricane-season-predictions-scatter-all-over-the-map/106016517

    Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009.http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-active-2010-1.asp18

    NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010.

    2010 Hurricane Names

    1. Hurricane Alex
    2. Hurricane Bonnie
    3. Hurricane Colin
    4. Hurricane Danielle
    5. Hurricane Earl
    6. Hurricane Fiona
    7. Hurricane Gaston
    8. Hurricane Hermine
    9. Hurricane Igo
    10. Hurricane Julia

    Earlier Warnings Issued This Year
     
    The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN056675320100105?type=marketsNews20

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