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2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

Posted on Wed, Apr 28, 2010 @ 09:10 PM
 
The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean will begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.

Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions
An Above-Average Hurricane Season:


* On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/7 Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "lead to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/8


Eight Major Hurricanes Expected


* Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.


15 Named Storms in Total

* Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/07/forecasters-predict-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/12

Hurricane Information
 
The 2009 hurricane season was a relatively mild one for the United States, with only one hurricane and one tropical storm coming ashore. The position of El Nino near the South American coast and cool Atlantic waters inhibited storm growth. We cannot, however, count on the 2010 hurricane season being so uneventful. If El Nino draws away from the South American coast causing warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean, conditions will be much more favorable to hurricane development.

For individuals in the paths of potential hurricanes, the keys to minimizing deaths and property damage are preparedness and heeding the instructions local officials. If a hurricane actually threatens your area, keeping current on the latest forecasts for the storm's path and preparing to evacuate is essential. This 2010 Hurricane Season page will follow the 2010 season from preparedness, throughout the season, and in the aftermath, offering up-to-date information and resources to keep you fully informed.

Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season
 
As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.

At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms.http://cbs4.com/local/el.nino.hurricane.2.1338052.html13


One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009.http://www.baldwincountynow.com/articles/2009/12/13/local_news/doc4b2171607d043750595889.txt14 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes.http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf15 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer.http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Forecast_Schedule.html16 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed.http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/2010-hurricane-season-predictions-scatter-all-over-the-map/106016517

Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009.http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-active-2010-1.asp18

NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010.

2010 Hurricane Names

1. Hurricane Alex
2. Hurricane Bonnie
3. Hurricane Colin
4. Hurricane Danielle
5. Hurricane Earl
6. Hurricane Fiona
7. Hurricane Gaston
8. Hurricane Hermine
9. Hurricane Igo
10. Hurricane Julia

Earlier Warnings Issued This Year
 
The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN056675320100105?type=marketsNews20

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